The Zurich Axioms, Explained for Software Engineers

The Zurich Axioms sound more serious than they really are. They are not axioms like in math. There are no proofs, no guarantees, and no universal truths. They are rules of thumb.

They came from the world of Swiss banking and were written down by Max Gunther in the 1980s in [*The Zurich Axioms*](https://www.amazon.com/Zurich-Axioms-reward-keep-it/dp/0285638386?tag=yojimbo08-20). At first glance, many of them feel obvious. Almost boring.

That is exactly why they matter.

Common sense is usually the first thing we lose under pressure. Deadlines, sunk cost, team momentum, investor expectations, and ego all get in the way. The Zurich Axioms are useful because they are easy to remember when judgment gets fuzzy.

Below, I restate each axiom using examples from software engineering and tech companies. The goal is simple: make these ideas easier to recall when you are deciding whether to ship, refactor, pivot, or walk away.

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## Axioms at a Glance

| # | Axiom | Core Idea |
|---|-------|-----------|
| 1 | On Risk | If you are not worried, you are probably not risking enough |
| 2 | On Greed | Take wins earlier than feels ideal |
| 3 | On Hope | Hope is not a plan |
| 4 | On Forecasts | People do not behave the way we expect |
| 5 | On Patterns | When everything looks perfect, be careful |
| 6 | On Mobility | Do not get stuck on one solution |
| 7 | On Intuition | Trust your gut only if you can explain it |
| 8 | On Religion and the Occult | There are no magical shortcuts |
| 9 | On Optimism and Pessimism | Optimism hopes for success. Confidence prepares for failure |
| 10 | On Consensus | When everyone agrees, slow down |
| 11 | On Stubbornness | Trying harder is not the same as trying differently |
| 12 | On Planning | Plans help you start. They should not trap you |

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## 1. On Risk
**If you are not worried, you are probably not risking enough.**

Gunther's first idea is that worry is not a weakness. It is a signal that something real is on the line.

When ChatGPT exploded in late 2022, Google reportedly declared a company-wide "code red" and shifted teams to move faster on artificial intelligence across core products.

**Takeaway:** Some discomfort means the work actually matters. If everything feels safe, the upside is probably limited. Worry should lead to action, not freezing.

*Source: [Google's 'Code Red' Over ChatGPT](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/21/technology/ai-chatgpt-google-search.html)*

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## 2. On Greed
**Take wins earlier than feels ideal.**

The founders of the social network Bebo sold the company near its peak. Years later, after the product collapsed, they bought it back for a tiny fraction of the price.

In software, greed shows up as endless polishing, endless refactoring, and endless delay in shipping.

**Takeaway:** Ship when the product is good enough, not perfect. Know when more work stops adding real value. Finishing beats squeezing out the last 5 percent.

*Source: [Bebo founder pays $1m to buy back site sold for $850m](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/jul/02/bebo-founder-buys-back-site)*

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## 3. On Hope
**Hope is not a plan.**

Slack started as an online game called *Glitch*. When it failed to gain users, the team shut it down and pivoted to an internal chat tool they had already built.

They did not wait and hope usage would improve.

**Takeaway:** Set clear signals for success and failure. Stop projects when data keeps pointing the wrong way. Ending a losing effort early saves time and morale.

*Source: [How Slack Got Started](https://www.fastcompany.com/3021085/how-slack-got-started)*

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## 4. On Forecasts
**People do not behave the way we expect.**

In 1995, Robert Metcalfe, inventor of Ethernet, predicted the internet would collapse within a year. It did not.

Smart people are often wrong about how technology will be used.

**Takeaway:** Treat forecasts as guesses, not facts. Design systems that can change direction. Learn from real users faster than you plan.

*Sources: [Robert Metcalfe - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Metcalfe); Bob Metcalfe, [*Internet Collapses and Other InfoWorld Punditry*](https://www.amazon.com/Internet-Collapses-Other-InfoWorld-Punditry/dp/076453503X?tag=yojimbo08-20)*

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## 5. On Patterns
**When everything looks perfect, be careful.**

Quibi launched with massive funding, famous backers, and strong press. On paper, it looked like a sure thing. It shut down less than a year later.

Good stories can hide real problems.

**Takeaway:** Do not confuse strong resumes with strong products. Look for missing details, not just success signals. Test real usage early and often.

*Source: [Quibi - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quibi)*

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## 6. On Mobility
**Do not get stuck on one solution.**

Shopify began as a snowboard shop. The founders realized the software they built to run the store was more valuable than the store itself. They shut down the shop and focused on the platform.

**Takeaway:** Stay loyal to the problem, not the code. Build systems that can be reused or reshaped. Ask regularly: would we still build this today?

*Source: [Shopify - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shopify)*

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## 7. On Intuition
**Trust your gut only if you can explain it.**

Uber began when its founders struggled to get a taxi and believed many others had the same problem. Smartphones made a solution possible.

This was not magic. It was experience plus timing.

**Takeaway:** Gut feelings should be explainable. Use intuition to form ideas, then test fast. Do not confuse instinct with proof.

*Source: [Uber - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uber#History)*

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## 8. On Religion and the Occult
**There are no magical shortcuts.**

Theranos claimed it could run hundreds of medical tests from a single drop of blood. In reality, the core technology never worked as advertised, and the company relied on secrecy, staged demonstrations, and conventional lab machines to hide basic technical limits. Many smart investors and board members were persuaded by belief in the vision and the founder, overlooking fundamental constraints in physics, chemistry, and validation that could not be bypassed.

**Takeaway:** Hard constraints do not disappear because the story is compelling. Extraordinary claims require working systems, not faith. If a system cannot be tested end to end, that is a warning sign.

*Source: [U.S. v. Elizabeth Holmes, et al.](https://www.justice.gov/usao-ndca/us-v-elizabeth-holmes-et-al)*

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## 9. On Optimism and Pessimism
**Optimism hopes for success. Confidence prepares for failure.**

When Stripe started, many believed online payments were already solved or too complex for a startup. The founders were optimistic that developers wanted a simpler API, but pessimistic about everything else: fraud, regulation, reliability, and failure modes. Instead of ignoring those risks, they built the system assuming things would break, layering in safeguards, retries, and compliance from the start.

**Takeaway:** Believe in the idea, but plan for things to go wrong. Confidence comes from preparation, not positive thinking. The best systems assume failure and keep working anyway.

*Source: [Patrick and John Collison on Building Stripe](https://www.ycombinator.com/library/4A-stripe-with-patrick-and-john-collison)*

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## 10. On Consensus
**When everyone agrees, slow down.**

Many investors once believed people would not buy shoes online. Zappos proved that belief wrong.

Consensus often reflects habit, not truth.

**Takeaway:** Question assumptions everyone shares. Look for evidence, not popularity. New ideas often sound wrong at first.

*Source: [Zappos - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zappos)*

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## 11. On Stubbornness
**Trying harder is not the same as trying differently.**

Google launched multiple social products like Wave, Buzz, Orkut, and Google+. Each failed in similar ways.

Effort stayed high, but the approach did not change enough.

**Takeaway:** Be persistent about goals, not methods. If the same thing keeps failing, rethink the model. Do honest postmortems without blame.

*Source: [Killed by Google](https://killedbygoogle.com/)*

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## 12. On Planning
**Plans help you start. They should not trap you.**

YouTube began as a video dating site. Users ignored that idea and uploaded random videos. The founders noticed and changed course.

Users rewrote the plan.

**Takeaway:** Plan just far enough to move forward. Let real usage override intent. Treat plans as tools, not rules.

*Source: [YouTube - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/YouTube#Founding_and_initial_financing_(2005))*

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## Closing Thought

The Zurich Axioms do not make you smarter. They make you harder to fool, especially by yourself.

In software engineering, where uncertainty is normal and confidence is often loud, that matters. These axioms work best as quiet questions you ask at the right time:

- Am I hoping instead of measuring?
- Am I repeating a failed approach?
- Am I prepared for things to go wrong?

Common sense, written down, turns out to be surprisingly useful.

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### References
- Max Gunther, [*The Zurich Axioms*](https://www.amazon.com/Zurich-Axioms-reward-keep-it/dp/0285638386?tag=yojimbo08-20)
- Sean Murphy, [A Summary of Max Gunther's The Zurich Axioms for Entrepreneurs](https://www.skmurphy.com/blog/2017/07/01/a-summary-of-max-gunthers-the-zurich-axioms-for-entrepreneurs/)